I have been pondering a question posed by one of our fellow students today: What is the odds at picking a perfect march madness bracket? I'd like to try to answer that using our understanding of statistics. I'd also like to talk about the odds of picking the overall winner, which is obviously much easier. Lets do that first!
There are 64 teams in the bracket, so on first glance you would think that you have a 1 in 64 chance of picking the correct team. This is assuming all teams are just as likely to win.
Historical data tells us otherwise! For instance, my alma mater Bucknell is an 11 seed which historically says they only have a 33% chance of beating 6 seed Butler. (Although in 2005 as a 14 seed they beat the odds winning over 3 seed Kansas). That being said, #1 seeds are basically 100% to win the first round, so picking a 1 seed to win it all is more like a 1 in 32 shot or a 3% chance. Now for the fun stuff, lets talk about a perfect bracket!
First of all, we need to know how many games there are:
32 in round 1; 16 in round 2; 8 in round 3; 4 in round 4; 2 in round 5; the championship
That is a total of 63 games, each with two possible outcomes. This means that we can choose one of two options 63 times. The total possible outcomes is therefore 2
63 or 9 x 10
18! This means that to pick a perfect bracket randomly is IMPOSSIBLE! Lets assume everyone in the world ( 7 billion people ) each plays a bracket randomly every year. It would still take a BILLION years worth of tournaments to to get just one bracket that is perfect. But that is with random selection and most of us can pick better than that.
Historically speaking you can predict all the first round games with 75% accuracy. This means that for the first 32 games you have a 0.75
32 or 1 in 9955 chance of picking correctly. However, you still have 31 more games to pick and each of these are basically a toss up. That means you have a 1 in 2
31 (about 2 billion) chance of getting it right from here on. However, for the perfect bracket you need to pick the first 32 AND the second 31 games correctly. All in all you are still looking at a chance of 1 in 21 trillion to put together a perfect bracket. That means if everyone in the world played every year it would still take about 3,000 years for one person to get a perfect bracket. Good luck though!